The changes in the domestic and global economy following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic are altering the corporate profit league table in India. Reliance Industries (RIL), which topped the India Inc profit chart for more than a decade, lost out to State Bank of India (SBI) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1). India's biggest lender reported a consolidated net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of Rs 66,860 crore during the trailing 12-month (TTM) ended in June this year, ahead of RIL's TTM adjusted net profit of Rs 64,758 crore in the quarter.
Equity valuations are once again on the rise, after they cooled down in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The BSE Sensex trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has risen to a 17-month high of nearly 25x, from 23.7x at the end of December 2022 and 21.6x at the end of June 2022. Similarly, the index closed on Friday with a trailing price-to-book (P/B) value ratio of 3.6x, up from 3.4x at the end of December 2022; it is the highest since December 2021.
The Q1FY24 earnings season has started on a dismal note for corporate India. The early-bird companies' revenue growth has been at a 10-quarter low, while the combined earnings of non-BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance) companies seem to have hit the ceiling. The numbers suggest corporate India is entirely dependent on BFSI companies and the IT services sector to drive growth in revenue and profit while other sectors are showing signs of stagnation.
The Nifty IT Index, the gauge for the performance of information technology (IT) stocks, was the worst performer on the stock exchanges on July 29, a day after Infosys posted lower-than-expected earnings growth for the June quarter and sharply cut its revenue growth guidance for 2023-24 (FY24). The IT index was down 4.1 per cent, its biggest one-day fall in three months. The decline was led by Infosys, with its shares plunging nearly 8 per cent, followed by HCLTech (-3.2 per cent), Wipro (-3.0 per cent), and TCS (-2.7 per cent).
Jio Financial Services, a unit of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries (RIL), got valued at Rs 1.66 trillion ($20 billion) following an hour-long special trading session conducted by stock exchanges on Thursday. Shares of RIL's unit got priced at Rs 261.85 apiece - higher than analysts' expectations of Rs 134-224 per share. The price was arrived at after calculating the difference between RIL's Wednesday (July 19) close of Rs 2,840 and Rs 2,580, the price discovered during the first-of-its-kind pre-trade session.
Following a more than 15 per cent surge in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 from this year's lows, the spread between the 10-year government security (G-sec) and the Nifty earnings has approached the danger zone of 2 percentage points (ppt). At present, the G-sec yield is roughly 7.09 per cent, while the Nifty earnings are 5.12 per cent. As a result, the spread works out to 1.98 ppt, ever so slightly below the danger mark of 2 ppt.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to get a reprieve from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in case of a passive or unintended breach of the thresholds that trigger additional disclosure norms. According to sources, FPIs whose single group exposure exceeds 50 per cent of their corpus will get 10 trading days to bring down their exposure below the prescribed level, without triggering the stricter disclosure norms. If total equity exposure of an overseas fund exceeds Rs 25,000 crore and it doesn't wish to provide additional disclosures, it will have three months to pare its exposure.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
Investor confidence in unlisted shares was shaken after recent developments that saw online drugstore PharmEasy issuing new shares in a rights issue at a 90 per cent discount to its previous valuations and Reliance Retail's move to buy back and cancel shares held by public investors. Both stocks were, at one time, very popular in the unlisted market, with canny investors cornering them with the objective of benefiting from their listing. "Since investors have suffered losses on both counts, they will be careful when it comes to dealing in shares of unlisted companies," observes a broker dealing in unlisted shares, adding that there will be some rationality to the pricing.
With Housing Development Finance Corporation's (HDFC's) merger with HDFC Bank becoming effective on July 1, the merged entity is set to become the top weight in the benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indices, dislodging the country's most valuable company, Reliance Industries (RIL), from its perch. HDFC will stop trading after July 13. At present, RIL has a weighting of close to 12 per cent in the Sensex and 10.3 per cent in the broad-based Nifty. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and HDFC have weights of 9.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent in the Sensex and 8.8 per cent and 6 per cent in the Nifty, respectively.
The US market has been a standout performer this year, with the benchmark Standard and Poor's 500 (or simply the S&P 500) gaining over 16 per cent during the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23) in what was its best first-half show since 2019. By comparison, India's National Stock Exchange Nifty 500 has gained 6.4 per cent. On the surface, it appears that the US markets have done exceedingly well. However, a deeper analysis reveals the gains in the domestic market to be more well-spread.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
Gift Nifty will provide Indian investors cues on how domestic markets could react to global events.
Market concentration in the country's telecom sector continues to scale new heights despite government bailouts of public-sector Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), and private-sector Vodafone Idea. The combined revenue (or net sales) share of the country's top two telecom operators - Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio - in the sector's total reached an all-time high of nearly 72 per cent in FY23 from 70.4 per cent in FY22 and around 60 per cent in FY20. The net sales of Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel India were Rs 1.67 trillion in FY23, up 18.6 per cent from the Rs 1.4 trillion a year earlier.
'Even where we are now today, the growth rates are very good, but we need to get to 8-9 per cent growth in the years to come.'
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty Next 50 Index could undergo large-scale changes if the proposed tweaks to its computation methodology get implemented. In a discussion paper floated recently, NSE Indices, which owns and manages a portfolio of over 350 indices under the Nifty brand, proposed that only stocks that are traded in the futures and options (F&O) segment can be part of the index. Currently, as many as 11 non-F&O stocks are part of the Nifty Next 50 Index, which, as the name suggests, represents the next rung of large and liquid securities after the Nifty50.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the group's biggest cash generator, overtook Vedanta to become the highest dividend payer in India in FY23. The IT services major paid Rs 42,090 crore for FY23, up 167.4 per cent from Rs 15,738 crore for FY22. The 10 biggest payers together shelled out Rs 2.06 trillion for FY23, more than double the Rs 98,371 crore for FY22.
Reliance Industries (RIL) was the top-performing index stock on Friday (May 26) and closed the day with gains of 2.8 per cent, against a 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex during the day. RIL's performance on the bourses on Friday was, however, an exception, and the stock has struggled to beat the broader market for nearly two years now. The company's share price is currently at the same level as in September 2021, while the benchmark index is up 6 per cent in the period.
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