Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
Investor confidence in unlisted shares was shaken after recent developments that saw online drugstore PharmEasy issuing new shares in a rights issue at a 90 per cent discount to its previous valuations and Reliance Retail's move to buy back and cancel shares held by public investors. Both stocks were, at one time, very popular in the unlisted market, with canny investors cornering them with the objective of benefiting from their listing. "Since investors have suffered losses on both counts, they will be careful when it comes to dealing in shares of unlisted companies," observes a broker dealing in unlisted shares, adding that there will be some rationality to the pricing.
With Housing Development Finance Corporation's (HDFC's) merger with HDFC Bank becoming effective on July 1, the merged entity is set to become the top weight in the benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indices, dislodging the country's most valuable company, Reliance Industries (RIL), from its perch. HDFC will stop trading after July 13. At present, RIL has a weighting of close to 12 per cent in the Sensex and 10.3 per cent in the broad-based Nifty. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and HDFC have weights of 9.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent in the Sensex and 8.8 per cent and 6 per cent in the Nifty, respectively.
The US market has been a standout performer this year, with the benchmark Standard and Poor's 500 (or simply the S&P 500) gaining over 16 per cent during the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23) in what was its best first-half show since 2019. By comparison, India's National Stock Exchange Nifty 500 has gained 6.4 per cent. On the surface, it appears that the US markets have done exceedingly well. However, a deeper analysis reveals the gains in the domestic market to be more well-spread.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
Gift Nifty will provide Indian investors cues on how domestic markets could react to global events.
Market concentration in the country's telecom sector continues to scale new heights despite government bailouts of public-sector Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), and private-sector Vodafone Idea. The combined revenue (or net sales) share of the country's top two telecom operators - Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio - in the sector's total reached an all-time high of nearly 72 per cent in FY23 from 70.4 per cent in FY22 and around 60 per cent in FY20. The net sales of Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel India were Rs 1.67 trillion in FY23, up 18.6 per cent from the Rs 1.4 trillion a year earlier.
'Even where we are now today, the growth rates are very good, but we need to get to 8-9 per cent growth in the years to come.'
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty Next 50 Index could undergo large-scale changes if the proposed tweaks to its computation methodology get implemented. In a discussion paper floated recently, NSE Indices, which owns and manages a portfolio of over 350 indices under the Nifty brand, proposed that only stocks that are traded in the futures and options (F&O) segment can be part of the index. Currently, as many as 11 non-F&O stocks are part of the Nifty Next 50 Index, which, as the name suggests, represents the next rung of large and liquid securities after the Nifty50.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the group's biggest cash generator, overtook Vedanta to become the highest dividend payer in India in FY23. The IT services major paid Rs 42,090 crore for FY23, up 167.4 per cent from Rs 15,738 crore for FY22. The 10 biggest payers together shelled out Rs 2.06 trillion for FY23, more than double the Rs 98,371 crore for FY22.
Reliance Industries (RIL) was the top-performing index stock on Friday (May 26) and closed the day with gains of 2.8 per cent, against a 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex during the day. RIL's performance on the bourses on Friday was, however, an exception, and the stock has struggled to beat the broader market for nearly two years now. The company's share price is currently at the same level as in September 2021, while the benchmark index is up 6 per cent in the period.
The government is set to earn an equity dividend of nearly Rs 13,800 crore from the listed public-sector banks (PSBs), all 12 of them, for FY23, up 50 per cent from Rs 9,210 crore in FY22. This will be the highest ever dividend for the government from PSBs. The 12 PSBs in our sample are paying an equity dividend of nearly Rs 21,000 crore for FY23, up 53 per cent from Rs 13,710 crore for FY22.
The banking sector emerged as an outlier when the rest of India Inc witnessed a slowdown in earnings in FY23. The combined net profit of listed public and private sector banks was up 39.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) last financial year and their share in India's gross value added (GVA) or gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost rose to a record high of nearly 1 per cent up, from 0.8 per cent a year ago. Listed banks' combined net profit grew to Rs 2.36 trillion in FY23, from Rs 1.69 trillion a year ago. In comparison, India GVA at current prices was up 15.2 per cent YoY at Rs 247 trillion in FY23; it was around Rs 214 trillion a year ago.
Close on heels of the launch of Gift Nifty (earlier SGX Nifty), domestic exchanges are pushing for extension of trading hours for the onshore derivatives market, said sources. Bourses are waiting for a final approval from market regulator Sebi on the proposal to keep the derivatives market open for longer hours, they said. The move is aimed at attracting more trading members for onshore futures and options (F&O) contracts amid risk that global investors could prefer trading at Gift City given the tax benefits.
Led by Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the combined revenue of the Tata group's listed firms crossed the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, in 2022-23. The group's 14 key listed companies in which Tata Sons holds a direct equity stake reported a combined revenue of Rs 10.07 trillion in FY23, up 15.3 per cent from Rs 8.73 trillion in FY22. The combined net profit of these companies was, however, down 10.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) at Rs 66,670 crore in FY23, from a record high of Rs 74,540 crore in the previous financial year, when the profit had jumped 156 per cent YoY, aided by Tata Steel's strong showing.
Boom, bust or a bit of both: as the jury bides time before ruling on the US 'recession', the economy's vital signs at a perplexing time of high-interest rates, still-punishing inflation, and surprisingly strong economic gains are a study of a growing debate over whether the world's largest economy is barrelling into a new downturn. With the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) inflation fighters attempting the risky pursuit of 'pillow-soft landings' and its economy sending out mixed signals, if there is indeed a recession, it could spell trouble for domestic equities and corporate earnings growth.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has received Rs 300 crore from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) following relief from the Supreme Court (SC), which is hearing an appeal by the market regulator in the colocation case. The court on March 20 asked Sebi to return Rs 300 crore to the NSE from the Rs 1,107 crore the exchange had deposited as part of the disgorgement in the case. The NSE had given an undertaking that it will return the entire amount to Sebi if the latter wins its appeal before the SC.
State-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), which completes one year of its listing on Tuesday, presents a sorry scorecard as far as its stock market performance goes. Shares of the insurance behemoth are down 40 per cent over their issue price of Rs 949 to Rs 567 apiece. The Sensex, on the other hand, has risen 14 per cent in the past one year.
Thanks to a big payout by the group's cash cow, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Tata Sons is set to earn a record-high equity dividend worth nearly Rs 33,350 crore from the group's listed companies for FY23, up 130 per cent from Rs 14,529 crore in FY22. Nearly 90 per cent of this, or around Rs 30,500 crore, is estimated to accrue to Tata Sons while the rest will show up in its profit & loss account for FY24. This is because nearly 80 per cent of the dividend payout by TCS for FY23 was done before the end of the financial year through three quarterly interim instalments and a special one in January this year.
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